A reader worries that it will no longer make business sense for Xbox and PlayStation to make new consoles after the Nintendo Switch 2.
I’m writing this on Wednesday and, so far, the Switch 2 has not been announced. I feel safe in assuming it won’t have been by the time you read this either. Nintendo said we’d hear something before April though, so at some point relatively soon the boil will be lanced and the first console of the tenth generation of consoles will be revealed.
I’m not going to try and predict what it is or what its games are going to be, because apart from anything that’s irrelevant to the point I’m going to try and make. What we can reasonably assume though, is that the console is going to be more powerful than the first Switch and that means that the games are going to be more expensive to make and will take longer to create.
I’ve seen some fans express concern about this already, but what I’ve not seen anyone mention is the negative effect this will have on smaller Japanese publishers and developers, who have just about been able to keep up with the Switch but now face a future where it’s too expensive and time-consuming to make games for Nintendo’s new console. But that’s only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to my concerns about the tenth generation.
It will be harder to make games on the Switch 2, and more financially risky to experiment, but I have faith that Nintendo will be able to adapt and still put out the great games they are justly famous for. But I feel that is the absolute limit. If an imagined Switch 3 was more powerful again – on par or more so than the PlayStation 5 – then that’s it, not even Nintendo can make innovative or unusual games with the huge financial burden that would imply.
Now think about the PlayStation 6 and Xbox Series Y (please, for the love of sanity just call it Xbox 6, Microsoft – you can pretend the Xbox Series S was number 5, nobody will mind). Neither Sony or Microsoft has ever done anything other than make their next console more powerful and increasingly it’s been very hard to tell where the improvements are.
I’ve been watching trailers of Indiana Jones And The Great Circle this week and the characters look great, there really is no point in trying to do better because they’re still not going to be 100% photorealistic and yet the amount of money it’s going to cost to get them from 70% to 80% will be exorbitant – and I’m not even talking about the cost of the console to ordinary fans.
But I have my doubts as to whether there will be a traditional generation 10 Xbox and PlayStation. There’re rumours of both making portable consoles but they can’t be more powerful, or even as powerful, as the current gen because it’s just not possible on a small handheld, even an ultra expensive one.
They might make portables based on the Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5, but I predict that’ll be it. It just doesn’t make business sense to keep making ever more expensive consoles, that need ever more expensive games, when nobody can even notice the improvements they supposedly bring.
So, I think the Nintendo Switch 2 will essentially be the last console, at least in terms of the sort of generational improvement we’ve been used to over the last 40-odd years. At first this might seem like a good thing, since companies will have to just concentrate on the games to distinguish themselves, but I think we all know that’s never going to happen.
No new console generation means no more growth and so Microsoft and Sony are going to look elsewhere for it, to subscriptions, streaming, and whatever new band wagon they can jump onto – AI probably, or something even more useless.
You’d think shaking up the paradigm would be a positive, but I can’t see it like that at all. These companies are not going to want to be sitting there just making games on the same hardware for the next 40 years, they’re going to push everything they can to make you spend more and more money because hardware sales are going to slow even more.
That’s why they’re not giving up on live service games. Even if it takes 10 tries till each publisher gets a hit that’s enough for them if that hit generates endless microtransactions for a decade or so. The next generation, or lack of it, is going to make the actual games in the games industry even less important than ever, they’ll just become vessel for microtransactions – especially as the mobile market is stagnating and they can’t do the same there anymore.
To be honest, I’m not sure gaming will survive the upheaval. I hope I’m wrong, because I have a really bad feeling about the future.
By reader Zeiss
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