It is hurricane season in the Caribbean and not only for weather watchers. England’s opponents in the World T20, held there and in the USA, will experience the cricketing equivalent when they face Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, the fastest bowlers in the tournament.
Archer and Wood played together in the recent weather-hit series against Pakistan but only once, which suggests their pairing is not a given.
But the way England’s group stage is set up, with three minnows and only Australia as a tier-one ranked side, you would be mad not to blast Namibia, Oman and Scotland with the dynamic duo’s extreme pace.
Forget what the data tells you about the venues or even one’s opponents and understand instead the psychology. These teams never face fast bowling like these two offer (Wood touched 96mph against Pakistan and Archer 92mph).
Speed like that is rarely experienced by most cricketers let alone those in the second tier, and that scrambles the mind.
England can fine tune their team and tailor it to suit opponents and venues once they reach the Super Eights stage.
Before that, the object is to avoid banana skins and the best way to do that is to blow away the smaller teams with express pace.
The first of those potentially ‘tricky’ games for England comes against Scotland this afternoon in Barbados.
The pair have never met before in T20 but they have played 50-over matches, with Scotland even managing to deliver a defeat.
England were careless on that occasion and you’d expect them to avoid being so here, focusing their firepower with bat and ball to ruthless effect.
And yet, the one match played at the venue so far, between Oman and Namibia, ended in a low-scoring tie with Namibia prevailing after winning the super over 21 runs to ten.
The shorter the format, especially on a pitch offering help to the bowlers as this one did, the greater the chance of the underdog becoming Crufts champion, at least for a day.
Avoiding a slow start to the competition is crucial for England if they are to mount a successful defence of their crown.
That’s what happened in the recent 50-over World Cup, another title they held, after they began poorly and then caught the tournament affliction of playing catch-up with all the pressure that brings.
Assuming they reach the Super Eights stage along with Australia, that’s when tactics may need to be tweaked.
Although 15 of the 40 group-stage matches are to be held in the USA, the Super Eights will be played at grounds solely in the Caribbean. During that stage, teams will have to play three games in five days with some travelling on rest days.
Some pitches in the Super Eights are likely to have been used previously, which could see spin – and those batsmen more adept at playing it – come to the fore.
If the ball becomes more difficult to time totals could reduce, though the small size of most grounds might keep the average up as more boundaries are likely to be struck.
The hurricane season is when the Caribbean is at its hottest and most humid. A lot of people, the bookmakers included, have made India favourites.
Yet their entire team has just played a protracted Indian Premier League in sweltering heat, only to be faced with a World T20 to be played in similarly draining conditions.
If they do win, and on paper they have arguably the strongest and most complete side, it will be an incredible feat of endurance.
England are also fancied along with Australia and South Africa. Personally, I rate the West Indies, the hosts. They beat England 3-2 last winter and India the series before that but lost 2-1 more recently to Australia.
Their approach seems to revolve around playing two tall left-arm spinners who drive the ball into the pitch and in having muscular batsmen who can clear the ropes. Subtle it ain’t but it is proving mightily effective.
Many are pointing to the dominant role spin could play, with England possessing a modern master in Adil Rashid.
Due to timings aimed at catering to the Indian TV market, few games are under floodlights. That means the effect of dew, which helps batting but not spin bowling, will be minimal.
This has led many to speculate there will be a surfeit of spin which is likely to force batsmen to go harder in the first PowerPlay, shifting their sights from 60 in those first six overs to 70 plus.
This in turn could see batting orders adjust with big hitters promoted, something England already cater for with a top four of Buttler, Phil Salt, Will Jacks and Jonny Bairstow.
With their army of analysts, most teams will assess the variables and crunch the data, though this can overcomplicate matters as we haveseen previously.
Sometimes you just need someone to simplify things as Wayne Larkins did when he smashed Australia’s bowlers for 124 in Hyderabad in 1989, albeit in a 50-over game.
When someone asked him his secret he said: ‘It’s hard, it’s round, I just hit it out the ground.’ Sometimes basic is best.
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